I’ve always been a bit of logician, even when I was a kid. When I got older and began taking college courses in science, mathematics, economics, and philosophy, I really began to understand the importance of knowing how to construct a consequential chain (cause -> effect/cause -> effect/cause -> … -> conclusion).
Because I was a science fiction hobbyist (I liked to write the stuff more than anything), this turned me into a bit of a futurist. I seemed to be able to predict some general events simply by knowing how to construct a consequential chain.
It’s easy: Harry is a vain sonofabitch who cares most about what other people think of him. He knows two girls, Jess and Laura. He likes to talk with Jess about politics, and ignores her glasses and belly. He likes to talk with Laura about movies, and stares at her cleavage and tiny waist. Who will he date? The answer: Laura.
Certainly there are always exceptions, but usually they are due to a lack of data. If Harry ends up dating Jess, for instance, he likely is vain only about say, his career or singing voice, and not about his appearance to others (which usually would extend to one’s significant other).
The point is, perfect information always yields predictable outcomes.
That being said, it’s logical to extend that simple truth to encompass near-perfect information, or a large body of evidence. That is, if one is reasonably knowledgeable about something, if one employs a consequential chain, one can usually come up with likely stimulus-induced outcomes based on the breadth and depth of their knowledge.
That brings me, at long last, to this simple prediction based on the consequential chain I shall now construct.
1. Health insurance premiums are rising.
2. More and more states are considering health insurance a right.
3. Most politicians and their information sources claim that fat people make premiums go up considerably.
4. Fat people are unpopular.
5. State healthcare plans are inefficient, wasteful, and costly.
CONCLUSION 1: A state plan would likely penalize a fat person for being fat.
6. Neither financial penalties, nor forcing people to diet, will make fat people permanently thin.
7. The cost of weight loss programs, weight loss drugs, and weight loss surgery will make premiums for *everyone* skyrocket.
CONCLUSION 2: Fat people will be even more vilified for their fat, and their “drain” on society. More extreme measures will be promoted to make fat people thin.
8. No extreme measure, short of severe starvation when very young, will make a fat person permanently thin.
CONCLUSION 3: Parents allowing children to be fat will be called “child abuse.” Fat children will be sent to fat camps, and parents (especially if fat) will be similarly “re-educated.”
9. Costs will skyrocket, as will the prevalence of eating disorders amongst especially young people. Treating those eating disorders will cause costs to increase even more.
10. Eating disorders will not make a fat person permanently thin. They will, however, make many fat and thin people, but especially fat people, die.
CONCLUSION 4: Many already fat people will, as a consequence of this chain of logic, be killed for being fat.
11. Fat is genetic.
12. Fat camps do not work to make a person who is to be a fat adult permanently thin.
CONCLUSION 5: Eugenicists will find a set of what they consider “obesity genes,” or a way to test the likelihood of a person becoming obese. They will at first upon request eliminate these fetuses. Later, they will be required to eliminate these fetuses, these future “drains” on society.
CONCLUSION 6: Fat people will be eliminated.